LONDON: A US-UK drugs deal could lead to about 229,000 excess deaths by 2036 by diverting NHS funds toward higher medicine spending, research published in the British Medical Journal said.
The United Kingdom and the United States signed the pharmaceutical trade deal in December. Under the agreement.
Washington agreed not to impose tariffs on UK pharmaceutical and medical technology exports for three years.
The UK committed to raising NHS spending on new US medicines from 0.3% of gross domestic product in 2026 to at least 0.6% by 2036. The study said overall medicine spending would rise from 10% to 12% of the NHS budget.
The BMJ research forecast that the National Health Service would need to find an extra £1.3 billion a year by 2028 and £8.8 billion a year by 2036. It put the total cost by the end of 2036 at about £44.7 billion.
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The study said the deaths would result from “opportunity costs” elsewhere in the health system. It said the toll could rise to 291,000 excess deaths if the impact on adult social care was included.
Samuel Cross, professor in the department of pharmacology and therapeutics at the University of Liverpool and a coauthor of the report.
The agreement benefited pharmaceutical companies at the cost of NHS patients.
Science Minister Patrick Vallance defended the arrangement, saying it gave NHS patients access to “life-changing new medicines” and supported Britain’s life sciences sector through zero-per cent US tariffs.
The report said cardiovascular, respiratory, gastrointestinal and cancer patients would face the highest projected death tolls.
It also warned of broader effects on patients with neurological, endocrine, musculoskeletal and mental health conditions.
