Islamabad: Pakistan’s population growth has renewed calls to revise the National Finance Commission formula. Policymakers warn that rising numbers will strain jobs, schools, hospitals and water supplies.
An official projection report said Pakistan’s population could rise from about 241.9 million in 2023 to between 371.8 million and 389.8 million by 2050. The actual number will depend on fertility trends.
At a post-budget press conference, Finance Minister Muhammad Aurangzeb said the population formula in the next National Finance Commission Award “has to be reviewed and has to change.”
82% of the current provincial allocation is driven by raw population size. Federal officials have begun consulting provinces on changes to the National Finance Commission formula to encourage responsible population management.
The World Bank said nearly 40% of children under five in Pakistan are stunted. Meanwhile, 78% of 10-year-olds cannot read or write a simple text.
The female literacy stands at 46.5%, while female labour force participation is about 24%.
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It said the Federal Task Force on Population has not met since November 2021. Also, fewer than one-third of more than 130 workstreams in the 2018 National Action Plan have been completed.
The Population Council’s modelling brief said bringing fertility to replacement level by 2035 could raise per capita income by 37% by 2050. Meanwhile, Pakistan’s per capita freshwater availability has fallen from 5,000 cubic metres in 1947 to about 1,000 cubic metres today.
