The International Monetary Fund projects Pakistan’s gross domestic product will reach Rs193,630 billion by 2030, while exports will rise to $46 billion, far below the government’s $60 billion target.
Revised IMF estimates show Pakistan’s economy will expand by nearly Rs68,000 billion over the fiscal years 2026-2030. However, the country will likely miss its GDP target of Rs129,517 billion for the current fiscal year. The IMF now puts expected GDP at around Rs126,000 billion.
Export performance continues to raise concerns. The IMF estimates total exports at $36.46 billion in the next fiscal year. Exports could increase to $40 billion in 2028 and $43 billion in 2029. By 2030, exports will reach $46 billion, leaving a $13.79 billion shortfall against official projections.
Revenue mobilisation also remains weak. The IMF says Pakistan will not reach a 15% tax-to-GDP ratio by 2030. The ratio will stand at 11.2% next fiscal year and may slip to 11.1% between 2028 and 2030. The Federal Board of Revenue will collect about Rs13,979 billion this year, with collections rising to roughly Rs21,500 billion by 2030.
Non-tax revenue may reach Rs3,681 billion this year and increase modestly to Rs3,861 billion by the end of the decade.
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The IMF expects the budget deficit to narrow gradually. It may decline from 5.1% of GDP this year to 3.1% by 2030. To finance these deficits, Pakistan will require nearly Rs28,000 billion between 2026 and 2030. External sources may provide about Rs2,300 billion of this amount.
Public debt will continue to rise in absolute terms. The IMF projects outstanding debt at Rs117,441 billion by 2030. However, the debt-to-GDP ratio may fall from 72% this year to 60.7% by the end of the forecast period.
Interest payments will place sustained pressure on public finances. The IMF estimates interest costs at Rs8,251 billion next fiscal year. Payments may reach Rs8,214 billion in 2028, Rs8,796 billion in 2029, and Rs9,380 billion by 2030. The IMF also doubts the government’s plan to raise the tax-to-GDP ratio to 13%, citing weak structural trends and limited revenue expansion.
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Trade projections show widening pressure on the external account. Imports may rise from $64 billion this fiscal year to $66.86 billion in 2027. They could reach $72.90 billion in 2028, $77 billion in 2029, and $82.81 billion by 2030. This represents an increase of nearly $18.7 billion in imports over five years.
Government sources confirmed that authorities initially aimed to reach $60 billion in exports within three years. They later extended the timeline to five years. The IMF’s projections suggest the target will remain unmet without major reforms and faster export growth.
