SpaceX’s planned IPO valuation of $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion has split Wall Street analysts. Supporters point to Starlink growth and AI plans, while critics warn about losses, debt and governance risks.
The valuation would make SpaceX the world’s largest public listing. It would also place Elon Musk’s company near Amazon and Alphabet in market value on its first trading day.
Analysts cited Starlink’s profitability and the Starship program as key drivers behind the target. Reuters and Yahoo Finance reported that SpaceX made about $18.7 billion in revenue in 2025.
Starlink generated about $11.4 billion in revenue and $4.4 billion in operating income. However, the AI unit linked to xAI lost more than $6 billion.
Analysts said Starlink now helps fund heavier spending on Starship and AI projects. SpaceX allocated about 61% of its 2025 capital spending to AI operations, including data centres and GPU work.
Investor concern also grew over governance and related-party debt. PwC flagged about $9 billion in xAI GPU financing as loans rather than leases.
Governance experts also criticised the dual-class share plan. The structure could give Musk up to 85% voting control.
Read: Elon Musk Suggests SpaceX Could Go Public in 2026 IPO
Nasdaq’s new “Fast Entry” rule may add more price swings after listing. The rule could place SpaceX in the Nasdaq 100 within 15 trading days.
That move would force index funds such as Invesco QQQ to buy shares quickly. Analysts said this could push prices up at first, then increase downside risk. The IPO is expected to target a June 2026 listing under the reported ticker symbol “SPCX.”
