China’s oil demand may not fully recover this year after the Iran conflict accelerated a shift away from gasoline and diesel, Bloomberg reported,
Rystad Energy estimated that 200,000 to 600,000 barrels per day of lost transport demand may not return this year. Energy Aspects put the structural loss at about 300,000 barrels per day.
FGE NexantECA said China’s crude oil imports may fall by 3.3 million barrels per day this quarter from a year earlier, according to the report.
Bloomberg said the decline reflected supply disruption, the end of stockpiling, lower refinery runs and a ban on fuel exports.
China’s crude imports averaged about 12.6 million barrels per day in February, the Bloomberg report said.
Electric vehicle adoption also rose during the oil price shock. The China Automotive Technology and Research Centre said that fully electric vehicles accounted for almost 42% of registrations in April. This was up from about 38% in March.
“Consumer behaviour can be a bit sticky,” said Lin Ye, vice president of oil markets at Rystad Energy.
The International Energy Agency said in its June monthly report that China’s average oil demand may fall by 360,000 barrels per day this year.
Read: Oil Prices Fall as U.S.-Iran Talks Ease Supply Fears
FGE NexantECA Chairman Emeritus Fereidun Fesharaki told Bloomberg Television that Beijing may rebuild inventories only if crude falls to about USD 65 to USD 70 a barrel.
Industry consultant JLC said China may ease wartime fuel export curbs, with about 17 million tons of quota still available this year.
