The gold forecast turned cautious after bullion fell about 24% from a January 2026 peak near $5,405 an ounce to about $4,100 in early June, market analysis showed.
Iran-driven energy inflation has weakened gold’s safe-haven role, according to the source. The move in 2022, when gold rose after Russia invaded Ukraine, only to fall 21% as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates.
The Bureau of Labour Statistics put the US Consumer Price Index inflation at 4.2% year on year in May 2026. Energy drove more than 60% of the monthly increase, while core CPI rose 0.2% for the month.
Real yields remained the main pressure point because gold pays no income. Federal Reserve H.15 data showed 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities yields near 1.9% to 2.0%.
JP Morgan strategist Gregory Shearer said gold was in a “technical no man’s land” as investors weighed whether the Federal Reserve could respond to energy-led inflation with rate hikes.
World Gold Council data showed central banks bought 863 tonnes of gold in 2025, down 21% from 1,092 tonnes in 2024 as record prices slowed official-sector buying.
Read: Gold Weekly Loss Deepens on Oil Inflation Fears
Central bank purchases recovered to 244 tonnes in the first quarter of 2026. The rebound showed official demand still supports gold, but not at a fixed $4,000 floor.
Gold’s base-case summer range was put at $3,900 to $4,300 an ounce, with core inflation and Federal Reserve policy expectations seen as bigger second-half drivers than war headlines.
