El Niño Asia risks are rising as forecasters warn strong conditions could develop between May and July, threatening energy grids, hydropower and crops across the region.
The United Nations weather agency said El Niño conditions could emerge during the period, while early indicators suggest the event may be particularly strong.
Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Australia’s Monash University, said subsurface anomalies appeared strong and resembled the 1997-98 El Niño, though he cautioned development was not certain.
The phenomenon can shift rainfall patterns, leaving parts of Indonesia vulnerable to drought and wildfires. Authorities there have identified at-risk peatlands and warned of the country’s lowest rainfall in 30 years.
The warning comes as Asia faces pressure on fuel supplies linked to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, a key route for oil and gas shipments.
Haneea Isaad, an energy finance specialist at the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis, said countries dependent on Hormuz-linked deliveries could face fuel rationing, demand management and weaker economic activity.
Drought linked to El Niño could also reduce hydropower output. Dinita Setyawati, senior energy analyst for Asia at Ember, said Mekong countries, Nepal and parts of Malaysia were vulnerable due to their dependence on hydropower.
China’s 2022 Sichuan heatwave highlighted the risk, as hydropower generation fell by more than 50% and shortages hit households and industry.
Read: Oil Prices Ease as Trump Cites Hormuz Ship Plan
Agriculture faces added pressure from hotter, drier weather and higher fertiliser and fuel costs linked to the Middle East conflict. BMI, a unit of Fitch Solutions, warned that squeezed producer margins could reduce fertiliser use, weaken yields and worsen food insecurity.
