Scientists are closely monitoring Asteroid YR4 after new research suggested it could produce the most energetic lunar impact ever observed in modern times. The event would occur if the asteroid strikes the Moon in 2032.
Researchers stress that the probability remains low. However, the possible impact could carry both scientific value and limited risk.
NASA confirmed that Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered in December 2024 by the ATLAS telescope network in Chile. The space rock measures about 60 meters in diameter.
Initial assessments raised concerns about a potential Earth impact. Later observations from NASA and the James Webb Space Telescope ruled out that scenario. Updated orbital calculations now show a four percent chance that the asteroid could collide with the Moon on December 22, 2032.
Although the European Space Agency’s Rosetta mission ended in 2016, its legacy continues through publicly released data.
Using raw images captured at comet 67P/Churyumov–Gerasimenko, a user reconstructed this short animation, offering a rare, realistic glimpse of a comet’s… pic.twitter.com/GOscWoYJPJ
— Black Hole (@konstructivizm) January 29, 2026If the collision occurs, scientists estimate it would release energy equal to about 6.5 megatons of TNT. That level would exceed any previously recorded lunar impact.
Experts say the strike could form a crater nearly one kilometer wide. It could also trigger a moonquake with an estimated magnitude of five. The impact may eject a significant amount of lunar material into space. Some debris could reach Earth and create bright meteor showers visible across multiple continents.
Scientists believe the event would pose little direct danger to people on Earth. However, researchers are assessing potential risks to satellites orbiting the planet. Despite the uncertainties, scientists describe the scenario as a rare scientific opportunity. They say the event could offer valuable insights into impact physics and lunar geology.
Infrared observatories could track how molten rock cools after the collision. Seismic instruments on the Moon could measure shock waves traveling through its interior. Researchers say such data could deepen understanding of the Moon’s internal structure and its long-term evolution.
For now, scientists continue to refine orbital models and monitor the asteroid’s path as 2032 approaches.
