Pakistan’s inflation outlook for April 2026 has come under sharper focus after the Finance Ministry warned that rising global tensions could push prices higher in the coming weeks. According to its latest monthly economic outlook report, inflation is expected to remain between 7.5 per cent and 8.5 per cent in April, with risks tilted upward due to the war in the Middle East.
The ministry said higher global oil prices could raise industrial production costs and put additional pressure on Pakistan’s import bill. Still, it maintained that the Pakistan economy is likely to remain stable despite the uncertain international environment.
The report described Pakistan’s near-term economic outlook as cautiously positive, pointing to signs of stabilisation across key sectors. Even so, the government flagged energy-related risks as a major concern because higher oil prices can quickly feed into domestic costs.
Officials also highlighted efforts to maintain petroleum reserves, manage energy demand and reduce expenditures. Those measures are intended to soften the impact of external shocks on the economy.
Read: Pakistan Weekly Inflation SPI March 2026 Rises 4.70% YoY, PBS Data Shows
The ministry said there are early signs of recovery in the industrial sector. It pointed to a notable rise in imports of textile machinery and construction materials, which may reflect improving business activity.
Remittances are also expected to rise during the Eid period, while growth in IT exports has contributed positively to foreign reserves. In addition, the report said the current account deficit is likely to remain under control.
In the agricultural sector, lending increased by 11 per cent during the first seven months of the fiscal year. The report said it reached Rs. 1.649 billion between July and January.
During the same period, banks provided Rs. 887 billion in credit to the private sector. That trend suggests credit activity remained active even as policymakers kept a close watch on inflation and external risks.
