A NASA satellite reentry on Tuesday is expected as Van Allen Probe A heads back toward Earth after nearly 14 years in orbit. The spacecraft, which weighs more than 1,500 pounds, is projected to reenter the atmosphere at around 7:45 p.m. ET.
NASA has been tracking the satellite closely as it descends. However, scientists still cannot predict the exact moment or location of its fall because space debris moves at extremely high speeds.
According to NASA, the chance of the satellite falling into a populated area is very low, at about 0.02 per cent. The agency also said the risk of anyone being harmed by the falling debris is roughly 1 in 4,200.
Even so, most of the spacecraft is expected to burn up during reentry. Because oceans cover most of Earth, any remaining debris would likely land in water.
This makes the Van Allen Probe A reentry a closely watched event, but not one that NASA has described as a major public safety threat.
Why Van Allen Probe A Is Returning Early
Scientists had initially estimated that the satellite would return to Earth in 2034. However, the current solar cycle turned out to be far more active than expected, which changed the spacecraft’s path and sped up its return.
That shift shortened the timeline significantly. As a result, the NASA probe is now falling back to Earth years earlier than first predicted.
Van Allen Probe A launched with its twin, Van Allen Probe B, on August 30, 2012. The mission was designed to study charged particles in Earth’s magnetic field and examine how that environment helps protect the planet from cosmic radiation, solar storms, and harmful solar winds.
The mission ended in 2019 when the spacecraft ran out of fuel. Since then, NASA has considered the satellite redundant
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The final stage of the satellite’s journey will happen during atmospheric reentry. While small parts of the structure could survive, NASA expects most of the probe to disintegrate before reaching the ground.
