Europe gas prices may need to exceed €100 per megawatt-hour in December 2026 to rebuild winter inventories, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. analysts said on August 23.
Analysts Samantha Dart and Laura Cyr said current prices may not attract enough liquefied natural gas cargoes away from Asian buyers. They based the scenario on Middle East energy exports recovering only gradually through 2027.
Dutch front-month TTF futures, Europe’s benchmark gas contract, climbed above €65/MWh last week. That marked a five-month high, according to the report.
Goldman said the rally still may not provide enough incentive to redirect LNG supplies toward Europe. The US-Iran conflict has reduced shipments through the Strait of Hormuz and intensified competition for available cargoes.
Goldman expects Northwest European gas storage to finish August at 51% full at current injection rates. That would leave inventories 3.4 percentage points below the bank’s base-case forecast.
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The analysts said present price levels would not allow Europe to manage storage adequately through winter if supply disruptions persist.
Under their prolonged-disruption scenario, December 2026 TTF prices would need to exceed €100/MWh. That level would stand 110% above Goldman’s €50/MWh base case, the analysts said.
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Weather could reduce some of the pressure. Rystad Energy AS said this month that a “super” El Niño could lower European gas demand if winter temperatures rise at least 2C above the historical average. Goldman’s latest outlook, however, assumes average winter temperatures.
