WASHINGTON, United States: The rare Earth supply chain across North America could remain vulnerable into 2028 as new US defence-sourcing restrictions arrive before major domestic processing and magnet projects reach scale.
Rare Earth Exchanges (REEx) said financing, feedstock, plant commissioning and customer qualification could delay several announced projects.
Its July 4 analysis warned that investment commitments and planned capacity did not constitute dependable industrial supply.
REEx forecast that the United States could achieve 10% mine-to-magnet resilience by late 2027 and 20% around 2029 or early 2030. It placed 40% resilience between 2033 and 2035 under existing policies.
The regulatory pressure will increase on January 1, 2027. Updated Defence Federal Acquisition Regulation Supplement rules will bar the US Department of Defence from acquiring covered materials sourced from designated countries across the entire production chain.
The restriction includes neodymium-iron-boron magnets produced with materials mined or processed in China, although official rules provide limited exceptions, according to Acquisition.gov.
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China has separately suspended six export-control measures introduced in October 2025 until November 10, 2026. However, earlier controls on several heavy rare earths remain in force, making the reprieve partial.
MP Materials represents the most advanced major US contender. The company expects to begin commissioning its $1.25 billion 10X magnet campus in Northlake, Texas, during 2028.
The facility would raise MP Materials’ total annual magnet capacity to about 10,000 tons. The company said the US Department of Defence had also provided long-term purchasing support.
REEx identified heavy-rare-earth separation, metal production and alloy manufacturing as the main remaining bottlenecks.
China accounted for about 90% of refined rare earth output and more than 90% of permanent-magnet production in 2024, it said.
