Considering the prospect of a sustained stalemate with the International Monetary Fund (IMF) until June 30, 2023, Pakistan, under its widely publicized ‘Plan B,’ has found itself obliged to appeal to its bilateral allies for additional deposits of $3 billion.
The Q Block, or the Ministry of Finance, explores every possible alternative to secure financing from these bilateral partners. It aims to stave off a potential crisis affecting its external accounts should the ninth review not conclude.
The Extended Fund Facility Program
It’s important to underscore that the IMF programme is set to conclude on June 30, 2023. Despite both parties, IMF and Pakistan, openly expressing their concerns, they remain devoted to completing the ninth review under the $6.5 billion Extended Fund Facility (EFF) program.
Pakistan is considering assistance from its bilateral allies to bridge a financial shortfall of $3-$4 billion. As per top official sources, this plan is being actively considered and will be implemented to evade any imminent default threat in the months leading up to October or November 2023.
However, countries like Saudi Arabia and UAE have tethered their extra deposits of $2 billion and $1 billion to the signing of a staff-level agreement and the resurgence of the IMF program.
China’s Crucial Role
Meanwhile, Finance Minister Ishaq Dar announced that China is set to roll over $1 billion and refinance a $300 million commercial loan within the current month. Consequently, the foreign exchange reserves will not decrease by $2.3 billion by the end of June 2023.
During a recent televised speech, Dar highlighted Pakistan’s strategy in repaying a $1 billion debt to the China Development Bank and an additional $300 million to the Bank of China ahead of schedule, with the understanding of prompt refinancing. He reassured me that these Chinese banks would incur no penalty charges for this early repayment.
Concerning the State Administration of Foreign Exchange (SAFE) deposits of $1 billion, Pakistan is looking at rolling over two deposits of $500 million each, with renewal anticipated within the current month.
Foreign Business Operations
In reference to Shell Pakistan, Dar revealed that despite the company’s intention to sell its share to an international investor, business operations within the country would not cease. He reassured that all existing jobs would be secured and no capital would be transferred out of the country. The development resulted from Shell’s internal decision to split from energy and was not surprising to the government.
