Seven OPEC+ members were set to decide Sunday on an expected 188,000 barrel-per-day increase in OPEC+ oil quotas. This would be their first production move since the United Arab Emirates left the group.
The online meeting includes Algeria, Iraq, Kazakhstan, Kuwait, Oman, Russia and Saudi Arabia. Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, chief analyst at Global Risk Management, said markets had already priced in the expected quota increase.
The UAE announced on April 28 that it was leaving the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and the wider OPEC+ alliance after disputes over production limits. Its withdrawal took effect on Friday.
The quota increase is close to the 206,000 bpd rise announced in March and April, excluding the UAE’s previous share.
Analysts said the decision may have a limited impact on actual supply, as OPEC+ output is already running well below its formal ceiling. Moreover, Priya Walia, an analyst at Rystad Energy, said OPEC+ output under quota fell to 27.68 million bpd in March. This was against a monthly quota of 36.73 million bpd, resulting in a shortfall of about 9 million bpd.
Walia said war-related disruption, rather than voluntary restraint, mainly drove the gap. He added that Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz following US-Israeli strikes that began on February 28 has constrained exports from Gulf producers.
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The blockade has hit Iraq, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and the UAE. Iran remains an OPEC+ member but is not subject to quotas, while its exports face a retaliatory US blockade.
Amena Bakr, an analyst at Kpler, called the UAE’s exit “a big deal” for OPEC. She noted that the country is the fourth-biggest OPEC+ producer and holds major spare capacity.
The UAE’s state oil company, ADNOC, plans to raise output capacity to 5 million bpd by 2027. This is above the country’s last quota of around 3.5 million bpd.
