A controversial human extinction timeline model suggests there is a 95% chance humanity could disappear within about 17,100 years.
The estimate uses the “doomsday argument,” a probabilistic theory earlier introduced by astrophysicist Brandon Carter. The model relies on the Copernican principle, which says humans are not in a unique position in history.
The theory starts with an estimate that about 117 billion people have lived throughout human history. It then argues that humans may not be among the first 5% of all people who will ever exist.
By multiplying 117 billion by 20, the model estimates a possible upper limit of 2.34 trillion total humans. Based on current birth rates, the theory places that threshold about 17,100 years away.
The possible extinction drivers could include nuclear war, climate change, pandemics or another catastrophe. It did not identify one specific cause as the predicted trigger.
The theory remains heavily disputed. Critics say the model ignores changing birth rates, technological progress, space colonisation and other variables that could alter human population trends.
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Even supporters treat the estimate as a statistical limit, not a firm forecast. The University of Milan scenario suggested the human population could crash by 2064, but described it as an illustrative mathematical case.
