Oil prices jump on Iran tensions as investors react to conflicting signals over the war, renewed uncertainty around peace talks, and the latest closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
In early Asian trading on Monday, Brent crude futures rose about 7% to $96.85 a barrel, while S&P 500 futures fell about 0.9%. At the same time, the US dollar strengthened, reflecting a broader shift toward caution across global markets.
The latest market move followed reports that the Strait of Hormuz had closed again after briefly reopening. That reversal unsettled investors because the strait remains one of the world’s most important routes for crude and gas shipments.
Iran also rejected new peace talks with the United States, according to its state news agency. The report came only hours after President Donald Trump said he was sending envoys for talks in Pakistan and threatened fresh strikes unless Iran accepted his terms.
The dollar gained after falling late last week, when optimism over the Strait reopening had lifted stocks and pushed oil lower. On Monday, the euro slipped 0.3% to $1.1735, while the yen weakened around 0.2% to 158.95 per dollar.
Analysts said the market was trying to balance two competing views. On one hand, the renewed closure of Hormuz and rising threats increased the risk. On the other hand, investors still saw diplomatic contact between the two sides as a reason not to panic.
Markets had rallied strongly on Friday after Iran announced it would reopen the strait. Wall Street indexes hit record highs, bonds surged, and oil prices fell as traders bet the seven-week conflict might be nearing an end.
Oil round trip. Hits $86 low & now back to $95!
Hormuz shipping grinds to a halt as tensions deepen.
Trump: US delegation to travel to Islamabad today.
Nifty: Supports 24,100-23,900. Target 24,800.
Set-up @_prashantnair
#GIFTNIFTY #Trump #IranWar #Oil #India #Israel pic.twitter.com/ieRBiXEPjc
— CNBC-TV18 (@CNBCTV18News) April 20, 2026That mood shifted again when the strait reportedly closed after about 12 hours. Analysts said the strong gains seen in bonds and equities now look vulnerable if talks fail to materialise or if the conflict escalates further.
Even amid rising geopolitical tensions, US stocks have continued to draw support from expectations of strong first-quarter earnings. Much of that reporting is due this week, which could shape sentiment alongside developments in the war.
Read: European Allies Fear Rushed US-Iran Deal Could Backfire
Still, some analysts warned that markets may have moved too quickly in recent sessions. They pointed to an extended Nasdaq rally and a recent slide in the dollar index as signs that investors may have become too confident too soon.
