Jet fuel shortages in Europe are becoming a growing concern as the closure of the Strait of Hormuz continues to disrupt global energy flows. According to the source text, the risk is most serious in Asia and, to a lesser extent, Europe, where airlines and airports depend heavily on Gulf oil and refinery supplies.
Economists and energy officials have warned that the situation could become much more severe in the coming weeks. If disruption continues, Europe could begin seeing significant flight cuts in May and June, especially as fuel stocks come under pressure ahead of the busy summer season.
Rystad Energy economist Claudio Galimberti said the crisis could become systemic within the next three to four weeks. He warned that Europe may face severe flight cuts if the Strait of Hormuz remains blocked and tankers do not resume normal operations.
The source also notes that some flights have already been cancelled because of fuel constraints. Even so, the European Commission said there is currently no evidence of fuel shortages in the European Union, while acknowledging that supply issues could emerge in the near future.
Last week, Airports Council International Europe warned the European Commission that shortages could begin within three weeks if tanker traffic through the Strait does not resume in a significant and stable way. That would place the first serious pressure point at the start of May. The International Energy Agency also warned that Europe could face jet fuel shortages, possibly beginning in May. In its latest oil market report, the agency said stocks could fall to a critical 23-day level in June if European markets cannot replace more than half of the Middle East volumes lost.
The impact will not affect Europe uniformly. According to the source text, Austria, Bulgaria, and Poland currently hold more comfortable stocks, while Britain, Iceland, and the Netherlands face greater vulnerability. France falls somewhere in between. Smaller inland airports will also come under greater pressure than major international hubs. As a result, the disruption is more likely to cause selective cancellations and reduced schedules at certain airlines and airports, rather than a complete shutdown.
Airlines say they do not have enough real-time information to plan schedules with confidence. The source says Airlines for Europe, which includes groups such as Lufthansa, Air France-KLM and Ryanair, is pushing the European Union to require airports to provide real-time jet fuel stock data. The trade group has also suggested exceptional approval for imports of U.S.-spec jet fuel. However, the source notes that regulatory, political and logistical obstacles make that difficult in the near term.
TotalEnergies has warned it may not be able to supply all customers if Gulf oil disruption continues into June. Its chief executive said a blockade lasting more than three months would create serious supply issues, particularly for jet fuel.
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That means the outlook depends heavily on how long the Hormuz disruption lasts and whether alternative supply lines can offset the loss. For now, the risk of higher fares, tighter schedules and more cancellations is growing as summer travel approaches.
