Former US Treasury official Kerri Bitsoff said Iran sanctions pressure can weaken Tehran’s military and nuclear capabilities but cannot bring down the Islamic Republic by itself.
Bitsoff, a former official at the Office of Foreign Assets Control, told Iran International that sanctions work by increasing costs and slowing access to money, materials and technology.
She said enforcement matters more than the number of people or companies sanctioned. Effective measures should change the behaviour of banks, suppliers, buyers, shipping firms and other intermediaries, she said.
On weapons procurement, Bitsoff said sanctions can force Iran to pay more for components or accept lower-quality alternatives. That pressure can reduce the effectiveness of missiles, drones and other systems over time, she said.
Oil restrictions work differently. Bitsoff said Iranian crude can still reach buyers, but sanctions can force Tehran to rely more on intermediaries, older vessels, ship-to-ship transfers, and discounted sales.
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She identified China as central to Iran’s sanctions-evasion networks. According to the source, the US Treasury has targeted Chinese refiners, shipping companies and procurement networks linked to Iranian oil and military trade.
Bitsoff said Iran has built a long-running sanctions-evasion system using shadow banking, front companies, deceptive shipping practices and newer tools such as cryptocurrency.
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She said sanctions should therefore be judged by whether they reduce revenue and raise operational costs. Political change inside Iran, she added, would ultimately depend on forces beyond sanctions alone.
