PANAMA CITY, Panama: The 2026 El Niño is already affecting shipping, fisheries and regional heat as forecasters track what could become an exceptionally strong event.
Steven Paton, a research biologist at the Smithsonian Tropical Research Institute, wrote in The Conversation that conditions in Panama were already exceeding some measurements from the past century.
Drought has reduced water available for Panama Canal operations. The Panama Canal Authority has begun restricting the number and size of ships passing through the waterway.
The canal depends on freshwater from rivers feeding Lake Gatun. Lower water levels can force authorities to reduce ship drafts and daily transits to conserve water. Environmental effects are also appearing elsewhere.
Fishing crews in Ecuador are catching fewer tuna and travelling farther offshore as fish move toward cooler waters. Panama has also recorded an early influx of blue-footed boobies as prey species shift northward, Paton wrote.
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The article cited Copernicus climate data showing August 2026 as the hottest month on record. It also said global ocean temperatures were already unusually high before El Niño intensified.
Scientists gauge El Niño strength partly through sea-surface temperatures in the Niño 3.4 region. The article cited projections of roughly 3C to nearly 4C above the long-term average.
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Paton said such forecasts, if realised, would place the 2026-27 event above the strongest El Niños of the past century. He also cautioned that El Niño effects vary widely by region and remain difficult to forecast precisely.
