GENEVA, Switzerland: El Niño 2027 could become one of the strongest events ever recorded, with a near-100% likelihood of persisting through February, the World Meteorological Organisation said on September 3.
The United Nations weather agency said exceptionally warm tropical Pacific conditions will strengthen the climate pattern further before it peaks toward the end of 2026. The agency expects its effects to continue well into 2027.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said the event could deliver major impacts to communities and economies as droughts and floods intensify.
The agency has increased coordination with national weather services and humanitarian partners to strengthen forecasts and early-warning systems.
Sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific reached about 2°C above normal in July. Weekly readings later climbed to roughly 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average, while subsurface temperatures exceeded normal levels by more than 8°C in some areas.
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The WMO said a very strong El Niño can substantially alter rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation worldwide.
However, the severity of impacts will differ by region and season. Conditions in the Indian and Atlantic oceans can also affect those impacts.
Forecasts for September through November 2026 indicate an increased likelihood of above-normal temperatures across nearly all land areas, along with rainfall patterns associated with a strong Pacific El Niño.
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El Niño forms when ocean surface temperatures warm across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific. The natural climate pattern generally occurs every two to seven years and typically lasts around nine to 12 months, according to the WMO.
