LONDON: A 3C global warming scenario by 2050 could result in at least 4 billion deaths, according to a climate-risk assessment by actuaries and University of Exeter researchers.
The estimate appeared in the “Planetary Solvency – finding our balance with nature” report produced by the Institute and Faculty of Actuaries with University of Exeter researchers.
The figure represents an extreme-risk scenario rather than a forecast of 4 billion deaths. Under the report’s 3C scenario, researchers also listed multiple climate tipping points, failures of critical ecosystem services and widespread extinctions.
They warned of severe political fragmentation and possible state failure. The scenario also included repeated large-scale mortality events linked to climate disruption.
The report assessed a separate 2C warming scenario as “catastrophic.” Under that case, it estimated at least 2 billion deaths alongside major migration, food and water stress, ecosystem losses and conflict risks.
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The 4 billion estimate appeared in an appendix rather than the report’s main conclusions. Climate scientist Bill Hare, chief executive of Climate Analytics, said stronger action was needed to retain the ability to limit warming to 2C.
The assessment links the potential mortality outcomes to combined risks from disease, malnutrition, water shortages, conflict and failures across natural and social systems.
