The Opta World Cup prediction gives Spain a 59.46% chance of defeating Argentina in Sunday’s final at New York New Jersey Stadium in East Rutherford, United States.
Argentina received a 40.54% title probability in the Opta Analyst forecast available on July 18. The model assigns probabilities rather than guaranteeing a winner.
Opta said its World Cup projections are based on 25,000 match simulations and will be updated daily until the final. Its 90-minute forecast gave Spain a 45.1% chance of winning, Argentina a 29.4% chance, and the draw a 25.4% chance.
Spain’s defence supports their position as favourites. Luis de la Fuente’s team conceded one goal in seven matches and recorded six clean sheets, according to FIFA’s official statistics.
Spain scored 13 goals during their run to the final. They defeated Belgium 2-1 in the quarterfinals before beating France 2-0 in Dallas.
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Defending champions Argentina scored 19 goals across seven matches. Lionel Scaloni’s team needed extra time to overcome Cabo Verde 3-2 before later beating England 2-1 in the semifinals.
The final will begin at 3 p.m. EDT on Sunday, July 19, or midnight PKT on Monday.
