The Iran Hormuz mine threat could deter commercial shipping even without mines striking vessels, while forcing US forces to maintain intensive surveillance of the strategic waterway, former CENTCOM commander Joseph Votel said.
Votel told Iran International’s Eye for Iran podcast that the possibility of mines entering the Strait of Hormuz could discourage commercial traffic and place a continuing surveillance burden on Washington.
The latest dispute followed a US military claim that Iranian forces on Larak Island were preparing rockets carrying sea mines for launch into the Strait. US forces said they struck the launchers before they fired.
Iran has traditionally deployed naval mines through small boats, submarines or aircraft. Rocket delivery could allow forces to place smaller mines at greater distance while reducing the exposure of crews to US forces monitoring the waterway.
Iranian state television discussed using the Fajr-5 multiple-launch rocket system for mining Hormuz as early as January 2025, while military analysts said Tehran had tested the concept.
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Farzin Nadimi, a senior fellow at the Washington Institute, said Iran had lost much of its ability to deploy larger sea mines through traditional methods.
Damage to conventional forces and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy infrastructure. He said smaller rocket-launched mines offered an alternative, although with less destructive power against large tankers.
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Votel said uncertainty itself could impose costs because US forces must monitor waterways, coastal positions and potential launch sites. Commercial operators and insurers could also react to a credible mine threat before any vessel is hit.
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The rocket-launched mine capability remains contested. Some maritime specialists have questioned whether Iran has made the system operational, while others consider it technically plausible.
Nadimi also said Tehran may be exercising restraint with some weapons to avoid a wider confrontation involving the United States and Israel.
