Barclays analysts say Tesla and SpaceX could announce a merger before Tesla’s annual meeting, which they expect no later than December 6.
Barclays analyst Dan Levy’s team sees that timing as an opportunity for shareholders to vote on a proposed combination. Its forecast concerns a possible announcement, rather than completion of a transaction.
Levy’s team argues that artificial intelligence provides the main rationale for combining the companies led by Elon Musk. It also sees financial benefits but places greater value on combining their technologies.
Under that approach, Tesla’s robotaxi and Optimus programmes represent physical applications of artificial intelligence. Barclays pairs those with SpaceX’s virtual AI businesses, including Grok and Macrohard. Control forms another part of the bank’s model.
Assuming SpaceX retains its dual-class share structure, Barclays estimates Musk could hold roughly 37% of the combined company’s equity. His voting rights could reach 56%.
Levy estimates Tesla shareholders could receive approximately 0.7 SpaceX shares for each share they hold, with a premium incorporated into that ratio. Those figures describe an analyst’s scenario, not agreed merger terms.
Musk has discussed growing cooperation between the businesses. During a Tesla earnings call, he said there was “more and more overlap” and pointed to Terafab.
Read: SpaceX Crew-12 Returns to Earth After 237 Days in Space
At September’s All-In Summit, he again referred to extensive collaboration when discussing the possibility of further action.
Separately, Space Exploration Technologies Corp. (SpaceX; Nasdaq: SPCX) closed Wednesday at $152.16, down $4.38, or 2.80%, from $156.54. Trading volume reached 2,744,801 shares.
Tesla, Inc. (Nasdaq: TSLA) will publish its third-quarter financial results after the market closes on October 21.
(With additional input from Barron’s)
