A strengthening super El Niño has pushed central tropical Pacific temperatures to around 3°C above average. Some measurements have reached record territory, months before the weather pattern’s expected late-2026 peak.
One measure has exceeded the previous high set during the 2015 event, while another is effectively tied with it. Different reference averages explain the distinction, according to Carbon Brief’s September 21 analysis.
The average forecast from 14 climate models points to a peak near 4°C above normal later this year. That remains a projection. El Niño commonly reaches its strongest point in November or December.
Scientists generally describe events exceeding 2°C above average as very strong, often using the informal term “super El Niño”.
The developing event is already affecting weather across several regions. Indonesia has experienced severe wildfires, while India’s monsoon rainfall has weakened. Drought in Central America is damaging crops and reducing water levels in the Panama Canal.
California is preparing for possible severe winter storms and flooding.
Read: California El Niño Emergency Declared as Strong Event Looms
El Niño is a natural climate cycle, but this event is developing against a backdrop of human-caused warming. The World Meteorological Organization expects it to strengthen further, with climate impacts continuing into next year. Scientists expect the additional heat could help make 2027 the hottest year on record.
