Oil prices and US-Iran talks remained the central focus for markets on Monday, as crude traded sideways ahead of renewed negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Concerns that tensions could disrupt oil flows kept a floor under prices, even as OPEC+ signalled a possible increase in output from April.
Brent crude futures edged down 3 cents to $67.72 a barrel after closing higher on Friday. US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude fell 3 cents to $62.86 a barrel. There was no WTI settlement due to a US holiday.
Last week, both benchmarks posted modest declines. Brent fell about 0.5%, while WTI lost 1%. Prices dipped after US President Donald Trump suggested Washington could reach a deal with Iran within a month.
Oil Prices, US-Iran Talks, and OPEC+ Supply Outlook
The United States and Iran recently resumed negotiations aimed at resolving their long-running dispute over Tehran’s nuclear programme. A second round of talks is scheduled in Geneva on Tuesday.
An Iranian diplomat indicated that Tehran is pursuing an agreement that would bring economic benefits to both sides, including potential investments in energy, mining, and aircraft.
However, analysts remain cautious. IG market analyst Tony Sycamore said expectations are low that both sides will compromise on core issues. He described the current stability as potentially “the calm before the storm.”
Meanwhile, geopolitical risks continue to influence crude prices. US officials have said a second aircraft carrier has been dispatched to the region, and preparations are underway in case talks fail. Iran’s Revolutionary Guards have warned of retaliation if strikes occur on Iranian territory.
These tensions have added a “geopolitical premium” to oil prices, as traders call it. According to Sycamore, without this support, WTI could likely trade below $60 per barrel.
Read: Oil Prices Rise as U.S.–Iran Tensions Weigh on Global Markets
At the same time, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, known as OPEC+, are leaning toward resuming output increases from April. The move would follow a three-month pause and aims to meet expected peak summer demand.
The combination of diplomatic uncertainty and potential supply adjustments has left markets balanced. While tensions support prices, expectations of higher production limit gains.
Trading activity may remain subdued, with several Asian markets closed for holidays. Investors are closely watching the Geneva talks for signals that could shift the near-term direction of crude.
For now, oil prices and US-Iran talks remain tightly linked, with diplomacy and supply policy shaping the global energy outlook.
