Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is scheduled to visit the White House this month. Despite public optimism from President Donald Trump, diplomatic sources indicate a breakthrough to normalise Saudi-Israeli relations is unlikely during the trip.
The establishment of formal ties could profoundly reshape the Middle East. However, Riyadh has consistently maintained its position through diplomatic channels: it will only agree upon a credible pathway to Palestinian statehood.
Two Gulf sources confirmed that Saudi Arabia’s stance remains unchanged. The Crown Prince, widely known as MBS, “is not likely to entertain any possible formalising of ties in the near future without at least a credible pathway to a Palestinian state,” said Jonathan Panikoff, a former U.S. national intelligence officer.
Read: Trump Warns Israel Against West Bank Annexation
This precondition presents a significant hurdle, as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu remains staunchly opposed to Palestinian statehood. Saudi officials see no immediate prospect for meeting this condition, given the current political landscape.
With normalisation off the table for now, Saudi officials plan to shift the meeting’s agenda toward finalising a pivotal U.S.-Saudi defence pact and deepening investment cooperation. This defence agreement will expand joint military exercises and fast-track advanced U.S. weapons sales to the kingdom. The pact, modelled on a similar arrangement with Qatar, aims to strengthen America’s military presence in the Gulf.
Read: Israeli Military’s Top Military Genera Resigns Over Abuse Video Leak Inquiry
The push for a full, NATO-style treaty has diminished. The perceived threat from Iran has receded, reducing the urgency for a treaty that would require difficult-to-secure Congressional approval.
The ongoing war in Gaza has also reinforced the sensitivity of the Israel issue across the Arab world. Saudi Arabia, as the custodian of Islam’s holiest sites, faces significant internal and regional pressure to prioritise Palestinian rights
