ISLAMABAD: Pakistani defence analyst Dr Raashid Wali Janjua warned on Friday that India-Pakistan nuclear tensions could worsen because of New Delhi’s missile deployments and plans for conventional warfare.
In an opinion column, Janjua argued that India’s use of BrahMos cruise missiles during the May 2025 conflict increased the risk of miscalculation.
He warned that Pakistani air defenders could mistake conventionally armed, dual-capable missiles for a nuclear attack. Janjua also criticised India’s handling of advance notice for an Agni-V missile test in March 2024.
Pakistan’s Foreign Office said New Delhi had issued advance notice but failed to meet the agreement’s three-day requirement.
The analyst questioned India’s access to nuclear technology under international agreements. He cited the Nuclear Suppliers Group waiver and India’s membership in the Missile Technology Control Regime.
Read: Pakistan’s Military Surprises West in India-Pakistan Conflict, Ceasefire Agreed
Janjua argued that India’s newer military plans could create room for conventional fighting despite the risk of nuclear escalation.
These include integrated battle groups and the development of Rudra Brigades, which he described as rapidly deployable military formations.
Read: Trump Announces India-Pakistan Ceasefire Amid Escalating Military Tensions
He presented Pakistan’s full-spectrum deterrence policy as a response to India’s military capabilities. India, however, maintains a declared no-first-use nuclear policy.
In an October 19 statement to the United Nations, Indian representative Manish Tewari reaffirmed New Delhi’s policy of credible minimum deterrence.
He said India’s nuclear capabilities were not directed against any specific country. Janjua further warned that ready-to-launch land-based missiles and submarine-launched systems could increase the danger of miscalculation.
He questioned whether India’s deployment of shorter-range submarine-based missiles had strengthened its nuclear deterrence.
