A French gambler, known as Theo, secured an $85 million profit after placing a $70 million bet on Donald Trump’s victory in the 2024 US presidential election via Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market platform.
This platform, which operates with cryptocurrency and excludes US residents, was a hub for high-stakes betting during the heated election. According to the Wall Street Journal, Theo, a former trader and French citizen, kept his last name confidential. Chainalysis, a blockchain analysis firm, authenticated his identity by tracking coordinated wagers across 11 Polymarket accounts that displayed synchronized betting and fund withdrawal activities after the election results.
Theo’s substantial wager against Kamala Harris recouped his original $70 million and earned him an additional $85 million. Despite Polymarket’s odds favouring Trump, the race remained tight, as various media reported.
Polymarket, which started in 2020 and operates offshore, faces scrutiny over its use of cryptocurrency for betting, blocking US users and raising regulatory and legal concerns. Recently, an FBI raid at the New York home of Polymarket CEO Shayne Coplan led to the seizure of his phone and other devices, though the reasons remain undisclosed. A spokesperson for Polymarket described the raid as “political retribution” for the platform’s precise election forecasts.
While Polymarket has not responded to AFP’s queries, Theo confirmed his $85 million gain in a Wall Street Journal interview. This incident highlights the growing intersection of cryptocurrency, betting markets, and political events, underscoring the discussion about regulatory needs for such platforms.
