Due to a bearish trend in the international market, petrol and high-speed diesel (HSD) prices are expected to decrease by approximately Rs6.50 to Rs7.50 per litre on May 31, despite a slight exchange rate loss.
Informed sources said petrol and HSD prices had declined in the international market by about $3.25 and $2.10 per barrel, respectively, in the last fortnight. This follows an $8.7 and $4.3 per barrel drop in petrol and HSD rates in the previous fortnight, respectively.
Depending on the final calculation of the Inland Freight Equalisation Margin (IFEM), petrol prices are projected to decrease by Rs7.25 and HSD by Rs6.25 per litre. The import premium on petrol has decreased by about 7% in the last fortnight to $9.70 from $10.30 per barrel.
However, the rupee lost about 10 paise against the US dollar during the fortnight. The net impact is estimated to be about a Rs7 per litre reduction in petrol price from the existing ex-depot rate of Rs273.10.
The HSD price dropped by about $2.10 per barrel in the international market, and its import premium paid by the benchmark Pakistan State Oil (PSO) remained unchanged at $6.50 per barrel.
Officials said the international market price of petrol had decreased to about $95 per barrel from around $98.27 per barrel, while the price of HSD had reduced to $97 from $99.12 per barrel. Petrol and HSD prices had also dropped by Rs15.93 and Rs7.88 per litre, respectively, effective May 16.
The government has already achieved the Rs60 per litre petroleum levy—the maximum permissible limit under the law—on petrol and HSD, collecting Rs720bn in the first nine months ending March 31.
Currently, the government charges about Rs82 per litre tax on petrol and HSD. Additionally, it charges Rs50 per litre for high-octane blending components and 95RON petrol. The government also charges about Rs19-20 per litre customs duty on petrol and HSD.
