Pakistan’s GDP growth rate is projected to reach 2.8 percent in 2025, marking a modest 0.5 percent improvement from June 2024.
As per the World Bank’s Global Economic Prospects Report 2025, the forecast, however, falls short of the International Monetary Fund’s (IMF) expectation of 3 percent and the Pakistani government’s more optimistic estimate of 3.6 percent. The report indicates that Pakistan’s economic expansion will likely remain subdued due to internal and external challenges.
While Pakistan’s growth remains slow, other South Asian nations are anticipated to fare better. India is expected to achieve a growth rate of 6.7 percent, Bhutan 7.2 percent, and the Maldives 4.7 percent. Additionally, Nepal, Bangladesh, and Sri Lanka are all projected to outperform Pakistan, with GDP growth rates of 5.1 percent, 4.1 percent, and 3.5 percent, respectively.
The World Bank suggests a slight improvement for Pakistan in the next fiscal year, predicting a growth rate of 3.2 percent, yet it would still rank as the lowest in the region.
Insights from Pakistan’s Economic Leaders
In related news, the Governor of the State Bank of Pakistan (SBP), Jameel Ahmad, recently stated that Pakistan’s economic growth is expected to exceed 3 percent in the current fiscal year. Addressing a press conference on January 9, Governor Ahmad emphasized the need for stable and gradual growth to circumvent future balance of payment difficulties. He also set the inflation target for the current fiscal year at 5 to 7 percent, expressing optimism that favorable economic indicators and controlled inflation could boost other sectors.
Governor Ahmad also noted that Pakistan’s current account is projected to remain in surplus through December. He reassured that the country’s foreign debt is manageable, currently at $100.8 billion.
Further bolstering this outlook, the SBP reported a current account surplus of US$1.21 billion from July to December in the fiscal year 2024-25, a significant improvement over the previous year’s deficit of US$1.039 billion. This trend of increasing surpluses is evident, with December 2024 recording a surplus of US$582 million and November 2024 seeing US$684 million.
