A study by two UN agencies on food price volatility and natural hazards in Pakistan has estimated that, “the per capita wheat consumption has been declining in recent years as a result of high prices and falling incomes”.
Applying the Shock Impact Simulation Model, the study was designed to gauge the notable rise in the number of people facing various types of food-related shocks.
The combined effect of price increases and flood resulted in an increase of the food gap from 3.96-6.20m tonnes of wheat nationwide, when using the minimum requirement of 2,350 kilo calories per adult a day.
Pakistan is the first of the five countries, where the case study on ‘food price volatility and natural hazards’ has been carried out jointly by the FAO and WFP. Its results just released suggest Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa are the most at risk wheat producing areas for monitoring weather shocks.
The study estimates that an additional 18m people became undernourished because of the price increase and severe floods of August 2010, increasing the undernourished numbers from the baseline of 77.6m in 2005-2006 to 95.7m.
On average, the undernourished population is about 603 kilo calories below the minimum requirement of 2,350 kilo calories per adult per day and about 6m tonnes of wheat per annum is necessary to meet their requirements.
