The UK food price conflict in the Middle East is growing, as the National Farmers’ Union (NFU) warns that rising costs could soon impact consumers.
NFU President Tom Bradshaw said prices for key items like cucumbers and tomatoes may increase within weeks. Meanwhile, other products such as milk and crops could follow over the next three to six months.
The disruption stems from Iran’s blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. This has driven up the cost of fuel and fertiliser, both essential for food production.
Bradshaw stressed that the pressure “spans the whole food supply chain.” He added that the situation could significantly disrupt global supply. Glasshouse crops such as tomatoes, cucumbers, and peppers are expected to be affected first. These crops rely heavily on natural gas for heating.
Mortgages, food bills and fuel all look set to rise as the Iran war sends oil and gas prices spiraling. The cost of petrol has already risen by 10p a litre. And with those prices expected to head even higher in the next few days, road haulage companies are calling for an urgent… pic.twitter.com/rNE6oQOImA
— Good Morning Britain (@GMB) March 20, 2026As energy costs rise, producers may pass along higher costs to retailers. This could lead to higher consumer prices within weeks. Livestock and dairy farmers are also likely to face rising costs soon. They typically purchase fertiliser as needed, making them vulnerable to sudden price increases.
In contrast, farmers growing crops like wheat and barley may experience delayed impacts. Many of them buy fertiliser in advance, offering short-term protection.
The British Retail Consortium (BRC) acknowledged that disrupted shipping routes may affect product availability and prices. However, it said retailers are experienced in handling such challenges.
BRC official Andrew Opie noted that sustained increases in energy prices could directly raise the cost of goods. Still, retailers will work to minimise the effect on customers. The issue is expected to feature in an upcoming emergency meeting of senior ministers. The Cobra committee will assess the broader impact on the cost of living.
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Farming minister Angela Eagle confirmed that the government is monitoring developments. She also raised concerns about red diesel pricing with the Competition and Markets Authority. Alongside food prices, officials are also reviewing petrol costs, household energy bills, and interest rates. These factors could further influence overall inflation.
As uncertainty persists, experts warn that some costs will inevitably be passed on to consumers, despite efforts to absorb them within the supply chain.
