Pakistan has secured $12.4 billion in foreign loans for the fiscal year 2024-2025, representing a $2.6 billion increase from the $9.8 billion in fiscal year 2024, according to data released by the Economic Affairs Division (EAD) on July 22, 2025.
The data does not include $2.1 billion from the IMF or $9 billion in rollovers from Saudi Arabia and SAFE deposits, which were secured but not detailed by the EAD. Below, we analyse the key sources of funding, any shortfalls, and the economic implications based on EAD reports and financial analyses.
Breakdown of Pakistan’s FY25 Loan Disbursements
Pakistan surpassed several budgetary estimates:
- Multilateral Creditors: $4.838 billion against $4.577 billion, with ADB disbursing $2.13 billion (vs. $1.65 billion) and AIIB $110.37 million (vs. $41.39 million).
- Bilateral Loans: $600 million against $471 million, including $221.27 million from Saudi Arabia (vs. $71 million).
- Commercial Loans: $4.297 billion against $3.779 billion.
- Naya Pakistan Certificates: $1.9 billion against $0.46 billion.
- Saudi Oil Facility (SOF): $200 million disbursed, with $100 million monthly in FY25’s final months.
However, World Bank loans fell short:
- IBRD: $392 million vs. $550.2 million.
- IDA: $1.37 billion vs. $1.525 billion.
International bond issuance failed due to high US interest rates, missing the $1 billion target.
Four elements boosted dollar inflows:
- Increased ADB disbursements.
- Robust commercial loans.
- Naya Pakistan Certificate success.
- Saudi Oil Facility contributions.
EAD noted rollovers, including $9 billion from Saudi Arabia and China, though details were withheld. China also provided a $483 million guaranteed loan.
Read: Pakistan Plans $4.9B in External Financing for FY2025-26, Targets Key Banks
The $12.4 billion supports Pakistan’s fiscal stability, bolstered by a $2.1 billion current account surplus in FY25. However, reliance on rollovers and failure to issue bonds highlight vulnerabilities. New routes to Europe and the UK, along with aircraft lease tax exemptions, may improve PIA’s profitability, thereby indirectly boosting economic confidence.
FY25 Loan Disbursements vs Budgetary Estimates
| Source | FY25 Disbursement ($M) | Budgetary Estimate ($M) | Variance ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Multilateral (Total) | 4,838 | 4,577 | +261 |
| ADB | 2,130 | 1,650 | +480 |
| AIIB | 110.37 | 41.39 | +68.98 |
| Bilateral (Total) | 600 | 471 | +129 |
| Saudi Arabia | 221.27 | 71 | +150.27 |
| Commercial Loans | 4,297 | 3,779 | +518 |
| Naya Pakistan Certificates | 1,900 | 460 | +1,440 |
| World Bank IBRD | 392 | 550.2 | -158.2 |
| World Bank IDA | 1,370 | 1,525 | -155 |
Data source: Economic Affairs Division (EAD).
Pakistan’s $12.4 billion loan haul reflects strategic financial manoeuvres but faces hurdles in bond markets and World Bank targets. Continued inflows are crucial for stability.
