Pakistan is currently experiencing a devastating flood crisis, resulting in over 840 deaths and affecting 2 million people. The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) has issued warnings about worsening conditions due to heavy rainfall expected from September 1 to 3, raising questions about whether climate change is a contributing factor to these floods.
The floods of 2025, caused by intense monsoon rains and the release of water from dams in India, have submerged Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, and other regions. Over 2,200 villages are now underwater, and 750,000 people have been evacuated. The estimated losses to infrastructure could reach $50 billion, following the $40 billion in tolls from the 2022 floods.
Importance of Analysing Causes
Understanding the causes of floods is essential for Pakistan, which frequently experiences these disasters. For example, recognising the impact of climate change can help develop effective strategies for mitigation. Additionally, human factors, such as urbanisation, can worsen the damage caused by floods. By studying these factors, Pakistan can enhance its resilience, particularly since floods disrupt both lives and the economy.
Understanding Climate Change in Pakistan
Climate change involves long-term shifts in weather patterns resulting from human activities, such as the burning of fossil fuels. It leads to extreme events, such as heavy rainfall and floods. In Pakistan, rising temperatures and the melting of glaciers in the Hindu Kush are intensifying the monsoons. These changes increase flood risks, threatening millions.
Pakistan is one of the top 10 countries most vulnerable to climate change, yet it contributes less than 1% to global emissions. The floods in 2010 resulted in 1,700 fatalities, while the disaster in 2022 displaced 33 million people. Rising temperatures, which have increased by 1.2°C since pre-industrial times, are driving these catastrophic events.
Pakistan Monsoon Crisis: 9 Dead as Floods Paralyse Major Cities
The Role of Monsoon Patterns
Monsoon rains, which are vital for Pakistan’s agriculture, have become increasingly erratic due to climate change. For example, Punjab received 190% more rain than its 30-year average in August 2022. In 2025, a monsoon low over Rajasthan triggered heavy downpours, resulting in flooding of rivers such as the Sutlej and Ravi, according to the NDMA.
Intensity of Flooding Events
Climate change is intensifying monsoons. A 2022 study revealed that rainfall has increased by 75% due to a temperature rise of 1.2°C. By 2025, flows of 800,000 cubic feet per second (cusecs) are expected at Trimmu Headworks, indicating a risk of severe flooding. Additionally, glacial melt in the Hindu Kush is contributing to river surges, worsening their effects.
Human Factors Contributing to Flooding
Urbanisation and Land Use
Rapid urbanisation in cities like Lahore increases flood risks. Poorly planned settlements in floodplains and blocked drainage systems cause waterlogging. For instance, 50% of Lahore’s urban population lives in flood-prone slums. Illegal construction near rivers, such as in Punjab, exacerbates damage.
Deforestation and Soil Degradation
Deforestation in northern Pakistan has weakened natural flood barriers, resulting in the loss of more than 30% of forest cover since 1990. Additionally, soil degradation caused by overgrazing has diminished the soil’s ability to absorb water, leading to increased runoff. These issues worsened the severity of the 2022 floods, resulting in the destruction of 1.7 million homes.
Pakistan faces a deficit of two trillion trees
The 2025 Pakistan floods are a result of climate change-induced shifts in monsoon patterns, combined with human factors such as urbanisation and deforestation. Heavy rainfall, intensified by a 1.2°C temperature rise, has overwhelmed the rivers. Poor planning and environmental degradation have exacerbated the crisis, leading to $50 billion in damages and over 840 fatalities.
