Following the final phase of the Lok Sabha elections, exit polls predict that Prime Minister Narendra Modi is poised to secure a historic third term.
An aggregate of 12 exit polls shows the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) leading with 365 seats, while the opposition INDIA bloc is projected to secure 146 seats. The BJP is expected to win 317 seats individually, an improvement from the last general election.
The highest seat forecast for the NDA comes from News 24-Today’s Chanakya, predicting around 400 seats for the coalition. According to the same poll, the opposition is estimated to receive 107 seats. The India TV-CNX exit poll is close behind, which suggests the NDA could win between 371 and 401 seats. The India Today-Axis My India poll also forecasts a strong showing for the NDA with 361 to 401 seats.
However, Dainik Bhaskar’s exit poll presents the lowest projections for the NDA, estimating between 281 and 350 seats, consequently offering a higher range for the INDIA bloc with 145 to 201 seats. Despite these variances, all exit polls agree on the NDA’s improved performance in southern India and Bengal.
In regional specifics, Andhra Pradesh strongly supported the NDA, likely rewarding the alliance with Chandrababu Naidu by securing 18 out of 25 seats. Karnataka is also expected to predominantly support the BJP, contrasting with its usual preference for Congress at the state level. Despite the Congress’s victory in assembly polls in Telangana, the BJP might dominate by taking over half of the state’s 17 seats. The BJP may also make significant inroads in Tamil Nadu and Kerala, securing seats in regions traditionally not its strongholds.
The exit polls highlight notable gains in Bengal, where the BJP might increase its 2019 tally from 18 to 22 seats, potentially surpassing the Trinamool Congress. The BJP could win 15 out of 21 seats in Odisha, a significant rise from previous showings. The BJP is also expected to maintain its stronghold in states like Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, and Uttar Pradesh, among others.
In contrast, Bihar shows potential shifts, with the opposition alliance possibly taking seven seats, a notable change from the last elections, when the NDA dominated. The opposition might also gain seats in Haryana and Rajasthan, improving on their previous performances. Maharashtra remains challenging to predict, with the opposition potentially winning a substantial portion of the seats.
Overall, the exit polls suggest a robust performance for the NDA, setting the stage for another term under Modi’s leadership. The official vote count is scheduled for Tuesday, confirming the extent to which these predictions hold.
