Introducing the first-ever digital census has brought unexpected disparities in district shares nationwide. This has cast a cloud of uncertainty over the upcoming task of redrawing boundaries for provincial assembly elections. The exercise has been made even more challenging because any seat adjustment must be accommodated within the current strength of each assembly due to constitutional limitations.
New Provisions and Their Implications
Further complicating matters, a recent amendment allows the Election Commission of Pakistan (ECP) to merge parts from two neighbouring districts. While, on the surface, this provides flexibility, there’s a growing concern among experts. They believe if this provision is widely applied, this boundary-redrawing could become one of history’s most controversial delimitation processes.
Impact Across Provinces
While Rajanpur and Bhakkar see a favourable seat increase in Punjab, districts like Rawalpindi, Multan, Sialkot, and Lodhran are poised to lose one each. Over in Sindh, three districts in Karachi stand to gain an extra seat, but Sanghar and Khairpur are set to experience a decrease. KP and Balochistan present a unique scenario. No district in KP has witnessed an increase in share; many, including Peshawar, are set to lose seats. In contrast, Balochistan’s Panjgur and Kachhi districts will likely gain a seat, but Zhob’s share is set to drop.
ECP’s Optimistic Outlook
Despite the challenges, there’s a sense of cautious optimism from the ECP. A senior ECP official voiced confidence that judicious use of the new provision can form uniform constituencies with minor discrepancies. Only time will tell how this complex process will unfold and its impact on the electoral landscape.
