The imminent approach of the severe cyclonic system, Biparjoy, to the coastal belt of Sindh is expected to result in increased power outages in the coming days. Owing to the cyclone, the LNG cargo of 100mmcfd couldn’t dock at LNG Terminal-1, leading to a decrease in gas availability for the power sector.
If conditions persist, a gas supply emergency might be declared. This could exacerbate the country’s current power shortfall of 6000MW. Failure to dock the LNG cargo has resulted in a drop in gas supply to the power sector from 690mmcfd to 600mmcfd.
If the cyclone continues, other LNG cargo might fail to arrive, resulting in a severe gas shortfall. Additionally, if the cyclone doesn’t shift towards the Indian coast, another LNG cargo set to arrive at LNG Terminal-2 on June 14 might not be docked.
In such a scenario, the imported gas intake could plummet to 100mmcfd. The situation could become critical with the current gas reserve at 5000mmcfd, which only covers two days of national consumption.
The Sui Northern Gas Pipelines Limited (SNGPL) system already operates with a minimal supply of 450mmcfd to the domestic sector. Moreover, powerhouses in Karachi may be affected by the fluctuating intake of imported gas, which ranges from 75-150mmcfd.
The government has reduced furnace oil imports for power generation and construction work on the Tarbela Dam. The non-operational status of the Neelum-Jehlum Hydropower Project has resulted in a significant shortfall in the system.
Additionally, powerhouses are operating at significantly reduced capacity due to the Rs2.5 trillion circular debt. The country also owes $1 billion to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor power project.
